Out of the big four professional North American leagues, the NBA is the one where championship dynasties are most prevalent. The reason for that is that it's the only league where one or two players can carry an entire team (unlike Major League Baseball), has a playoff format that favors the squad with the most talent (unlike the sudden death NFL playoff structure) and points are scored with such regularity that one or two lucky bounces cannot determine a game (NHL). All these characteristics tend to favor the more skilled team, which keeps the same teams from winning on a consistent basis.
Notable dynasties include the Bill Russell era Boston Celtics of 1950s and 60s, the alternating championships of the Los Angeles Lakers and Celtics of the 1980s, the six Chicago Bulls championships of the 90s, the turn of the century Shaq and Kobe Lakers and the current routine dominance of the Tim Duncan led Spurs.
There are similar characteristics that championship caliber franchises tend to have. The most important ones are that it employs one or two superstar caliber players, an elite core of role players and (in the salary cap era) relative bargains and fiscal responsibility to ensure a flexible lineup. The Portland Trailblazers have all of these aspects and will be the next dominant NBA franchise.
To be labeled a superstar player, one typically has to be among the top five of his position in the NBA. The Portland Trailblazers have three players with that potential. The one with the most is the number one overall pick of the NBA draft, Greg Oden. Oden's nine foot standing reach, impeccable timing and explosive athleticism will make him a terror around the defensive glass.
For the next decade, any player who drives the lane against the Trailblazers will either
a) make a spectacular contested basket
b) have his shot contested by Greg Oden, miss and have the rebound gobbled by the man-beast out of Ohio State
or c) have his shot blocked by Greg Oden
Oden's offensive game has potential but his defense will define him. He could easily turn into a modern day Bill Russell. Even when a player avoids the nightmarish Oden he'll have to deal with ‘the Boogeyman' LaMarcus Aldridge.
It's weird that a second overall pick can be so easily forgotten. Last year's draft runner up Aldridge had a turbulent rookie campaign which started off slowly, turned red hot when given ample amounts of playing time (including a couple of at least 24 points and 14 rebounds) and was shut down completely when diagnosed with a heart disorder (he will make a full recovery). There was ample talk that Portland should select small forward Kevin Durant over Oden because many felt that Aldridge could play the center position. While that may be true, Aldridge's mid range jumper heavy offensive game and questionable aggressiveness suits him more for the power forward postion. The most dominant trait that LaMarcus has showcased is his shot blocking. In upcoming years, the Portland basket will be better protected than Chuck Norris' niece at a Rob Lowe pool party. The most obvious comparison for these two defensively gifted big men would be Tim Duncan and David Robinson – the Twin Towers – of the first two San Antonio title wins.
The player selected several slots after Aldridge actually had a much more successful rookie campaign and showed his own superstar potential. Brandon Roy, featured here in my list of the 25 best NBA players under the age of 25, showed an all around game that resembles that of Danny Ainge of the Boston Celtic's dynasty (minus the obnoxiousness). Roy's unselfishness and high basketball IQ is typical of the player that Portland general manager Kevin Pritchard is trying to build the team around. With two potentially dominant big men and a gifted perimeter player, the Trailblazers have an abundance of the star power that's needed to put together a NBA dynasty.
Another characteristic of NBA championship squads are the complimentary players. Robert ‘Big Shot Bob' Horry was never anything close to an All-Star throughout his NBA career but has won five championships as a complimentary player on two separate dynasties (the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs) and two more on the back-to-back champion Houston Rockets of the mid-nineties. The Chicago Bulls employed the eccentric Dennis Rodman, not to score, but to play fantastic defense and to clean up any available rebound. The Portland Trailblazer roster is filled with young players who could develop into similar role players. Players that Portland head coach Nate McMillan can insert these players into the lineup to either exploit mis-matches or for specific plays down the stretch of the game. If his team is being outrun by a smaller lineup there are adjustments he can make to improve his team's athleticism and when it comes to pure athleticism few can match small forward Travis Outlaw. He'll perform frequently freakish acts, whether it be finishing on the break with an Oprah Winfrey worthy ba-dunk-a-dunk or swatting a weak shot attempt. He can be used to compete with the insurgence of fast break offensive attacks throughout the league, ensuring that Portland will not be ‘Dallased' so easily.
The thing that separated San Antonio winning and Cleveland losing in the NBA Finals more than anything was the respective quality of their backcourts. The Cavaliers backcourt were out-classed by both Manu Ginobili and finals MVP Tony Parker. Both guards were overlooked by every other franchise in their draft years and were late pick steals. Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez could give the Trailblazers that same edge. Both picks used to select the Spaniards were towards the end of the first round and were bought by deep pocketed Trailblazer owner Paul Allen from the Phoenix Suns. Rodriguez showed exceptional quickness and unnatural playmaking ability as a rookie while struggling with his shot – which was the exact same scouting report on Tony Parker as a rookie. Fernandez has more Ginobili in his game. He plays a frenetic style which seems a bit out of control but is efficient and effective. They'll have the advantage of working out together and building chemistry in the off-season when they both play internationally for the Spanish National Team.
Steve Kerr never averaged ten points per game during his NBA career but won four straight NBA championships with two separate teams. Kerr filled a VERY specific need, long range shooting. As valuable as the three point threat was, the main advantage to having a player like Kerr on the floor was that it spread the floor for his superstars (Michael Jordan and Tim Duncan) and prevented defenses from collapsing on them. Martell Webster, the high schooler drafted sixth overall by Portland in the 2005 entry draft could be that player. Webster's defining characteristic is his shooting ability – although he's got a ways to go to match Kerr's sharpshooting – but also has good size for his position and ample athleticism as well. He's a classy individual with a smile that makes women swoon and babies happy.
Josh McRoberts is an absolute steal for Portland at the 37th position. Remember, this is a guy who many figured had top five overall pick potential as he left high school. He underperformed at Duke and was hampered by injuries but players with his combination of size, athleticism and passing ability are hot commodities. If he could realize his full potential, he could fill in like Bill Walton did for one year with the Boston Celtics in 1985.
Let me just clear one thing up. There is NO way that I think McRoberts's career will have anything on the career of the redheaded Hall of Famer. However, maybe Josh's game - in his prime - could come close to resembling the season that the cardboard kneed, visible pain every second he was on the court, Walton gave Boston in the final full season of his career.
A lot of Portland fans are chastising Portland management for ‘giving away' Zack Randolph. Randolph enjoyed possibly his finest season last year, averaging over 23 points and 10 rebounds per contest. However, he's non-existent defensively (averaged a Richard Rich tiny .2 blocks per game last year), has a questionable disciplinary history and is owed a ridiculously bloated contract. In exchange for Randolph they acquired Steve Francis who only had two years left on his deal (which will be bought out by Portland) and promising big man Channing Frye. Whereas Randolph is still owed 17 million dollars in 2011, Francis's contract will be off the books after 2009. With this added financial flexibility, Portland will be able to fill in the necessary gaps in their lineup through free agency and will not be handicapped as much by bloated contracts.
The 2007 NBA Draft was a successful one for the city of Portland and it's basketball fans. There's no guarantee of even making the playoffs with a squad this young but all the pieces are in place for future dominance.
3 comments:
you could have wrote a book ;)
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